What If They All Lost?
As we head into Kenya Cup Match day 17, I ask you to once again pull out those calculators, its time for math.
Before we head into the permutations, match day 17 in my ‘book’ is like the last train to the play offs. If you don’t get on it at this point, you’ll be chasing it out of the station hoping somebody falls off. This is it!
Onto the math, first where do we stand currently :
1. Impala – 70
2. Kenya Harlequin – 66
3. Nakuru – 61
4. KCB – 61
5. Strathmore – 57
6. Kabras – 54
7. Homeboyz – 54
8. Mwamba – 51
I’ll stick to the race for the play off slots, for now, as it holds the best possibility of a major shake up, at the close of match day 17. We’ll look at the relegation dog fight in the week to come.
We have 3 fixtures at the weekend pitting 6 of the 8 in this race, these are the ones we will be looking at. Homeboyz and Quins will by all means gather bonus point wins, which takes them to 59 and 71 points respectively.
To the juicy part, Kabras host Impala, Strathmore host Nakuru with KCB ‘hosting’ Mwamba. Mouth watering, huh?
Coincidentally these three fixtures pit sides that are on two sides of the play off race, on one side you have Impala, Nakuru and KCB who have all but made the cut. Then on the other Kabras, Mwamba and Strathmore who can not afford a slip up of any kind.
The odds going into these fixtures heavily favour the previous sides, i.e Impala, Nakuru and KCB. What if they all lost on Match day 17? Where does that leave us?
The permutations below assume, ceteris paribus, the winning side does not pick up a bonus, same as the losing side :
1. Quins – 71
2. Impala – 70
3. Nakuru – 61
4. KCB – 61
5. Strathmore – 61
6. Homeboyz – 59
7. Kabras – 58
8. Mwamba – 55
That ceteris paribus up there was to one, prove that I attended a business class and two, to mean that the aggregate points will remain as was heading into the weekend.
Despite beating Impala, Kabras find themselves in 7th, with Homeboyz now occupying that 6th spot, Mwamba are still 3 points off 7th slot. At the top Quins move to first, 3 to 5 remain as was but with nothing to separate them.
This is where it gets interesting, looking to match day 18, Quins play Nakuru, Mwamba play Strathmore. The rest play almost certain 5 pointers with Impala playing Nondies, KCB playing the Sharks, Homeboyz playing Thika and Kabras taking on Blad.
I’ll let you run with that all the way to week 19, where KCB play Nakuru, Impala play Strathmore and Homeboyz play Quins. Make this your assignment of sort, remember our formula, ‘they all lose’ if you haven’t figured it out by now, the favourites lose.
Favourites are determined by nothing but their place on the table heading into that week, confused? That means for example, Mwamba win all their matches. Cant wait to see your top 6!
Bring on Match Day 17, here are the collated fixtures :
Kenya Harlequin v Kenya Sharks – 4.00pm, RFUEA
Homeboyz v Mean Machine – 2.00pm, Jamhuri Park
Nondies v Blak Blad – 4.00pm, Jamhuri Park
Western Bulls v Thika – 2.00pm – The Bull Ring, Kakamega
KCB v Mwamba – 2.00pm – The Cage, Madaraka
Strathmore Leos v Nakuru – 4.00pm, The Cage, Madaraka
Kabras Sugar v Impala Saracens – 4.00pm, The Bull Ring, Kakamega